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Premier League · Matchweek 3 · Full time

Newcastle

2-2

Full time

Bournemouth

Possession

57% - 43%

Newcastle held the ball

Shots (on target)

8 - 17

Bournemouth 5 on target, Newcastle 2

0.66 - 1.50

Bournemouth dominated expected goals

Corners

4 - 3

Evenly matched set pieces

AI AI Insights

Draw at 24.5% was the second-least likely outcome, but the model's BTTS call at 77.9% was spot on. Bournemouth dominated on xG (1.50 vs 0.66) and shots (17 vs 8), yet Newcastle's 57% possession and clinical finishing kept it level. Over 2.5 goals at 61% also landed with four goals scored.

Newcastle form

10 pts from last 5

Bournemouth form

6 pts from last 5

Over 2.5 rate

61%

Model pre-match confidence

BTTS

77.9%

Both teams to score

Previous meetings

5 Sep 26 Newcastle v Bournemouth · St James' Park 2 - 2

18 Apr 26 Newcastle v Bournemouth · St James' Park 1 - 2

10 Jan 26 Newcastle v Bournemouth · St James' Park · FA Cup 2 - 2

21 Sep 25 Bournemouth v Newcastle · Vitality Stadium 0 - 0

18 Jan 25 Newcastle v Bournemouth · St James' Park 1 - 4

Newcastle win

40.2%

Pre-match model probability

Draw

24.5%

Result: 2-2 draw confirmed

Bournemouth win

35.3%

Away win probability

Over 2.5 goals

61%

4 goals scored, over hit

BTTS

77.9%

Both teams scored, model correct

Newcastle

4-3-3

1 Pope

2 Trippier

5 Schar

6 Botman

3 Hall

39 Bruno G.

28 Willock

8 Tonali

10 Gordon

9 Isak

14 Barnes

Bournemouth

4-4-2

1 Neto

25 Smith

5 Senesi

27 Zabarnyi

3 Kerkez

10 Christie

4 Cook

16 Tavernier

7 Brooks

9 Solanke

19 Semenyo

1Man City3300+59

2Hull City3210+37

3Arsenal2200+46

4Chelsea2200+26

5Brentford3120+35

6Liverpool3120+25

7Newcastle3120+25

8Leeds3120+15

9Brighton3111+34

10Everton2110+24

···

15Bournemouth3021-12

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